He has never lost a major when leading going to the final round. So far I have gone against the grain in golf instruction so let’s see if I can come up with a scenario where Tiger doesn’t win.
Yang, to say he has no chance would be like me saying I have no chance of sleeping with Jessica Biel, in the next five minutes, because she shows up to my house at my wife’s request.
Everyone else is too far behind because I don’t see Tiger going backwards, even if he struggles and that would mean a round of 5 under or better to pass him.
That leaves Harrington. He has a huge advantage that he doesn’t have to play with Tiger. He is a British Islander, so he knows how to play in the wind and he is the defending champion.
If the wind blows, I don’t see Tiger going low. He hit as little club as possible off the tee yesterday and that is why he only shot 1 under. He will continue to do that today. If Harrington can tie the lead before the back nine hits, will Tiger feel the need to make birdies and press off the tee?
If the answer is no, Tiger will still win. If the answer is yes, I see one or two bad tee shots costing him the title.
For those who want some excitement today, that is the best I could come up with.
Tomorrow, I am going to have a really helpful post on how to help your game by avoiding things you see during PGA Tour events.
EDITED after the leaders are through 8: Since Harrington just took a snowman (way to ruin my analysis buddy) and I don’t expect Jessica Biel at my house any time soon, I like Tiger’s chances even with his spotty play.
EDITED after the tee shots on 10: Anyone who still thinks Tiger’s swing has him in a good place, his 5 wins in regular events not withstanding, isn’t watching the golf I am watching. For the first time in his career, Tiger looks scared of his game. I made a funny comment about Yang and his inexperience earlier in this post, but if he makes a birdie and no bogeys on the back nine, he will win. I have never seen Tiger be this tentative on Sunday of a major.
EDITED after 14: My apologies to Yang for giving im no chance. Win or lose, he has my respect. I will stay with my earlier prediction, if he pars the last 5, he wins. I know Tiger is the man and a hard charger, but I still say he is afraid of his long game right now.